To understand why i feel that a style of utopia is feasible, i will begin by examining today's exponentially increasing population. to assist comprehend what today's exponentially increasing population suggests that, let's look into a sensible projection of increase exploitation the documented formula:
Pn=2(Cn-x+1)(Cx-1)/(C-1)
where P = population, n = generations, C = ½ the amount of kids per family, and x = average range of generations alive.
If x = three (the range of generations that the fogeys ar alive) and C = one (two kids per family) the increase rate is zero.
Using this formula, and correlating it with our current population trend, the population within the year 2190 are going to be eighteen billion. more calculations show that by the year 2200 there will be forty two.7 billion folks and one hundred forty four.2 billion by the year two300. Wow -- with this ominous chance, what does one suppose must be done, and the way will self replicating androids and He three save the day? what is more, however will these projections lead to a utopian existence?
Consider this. If all of the world's population within the year 2050 (anticipated to be nine.1 billion people) were to consume oil at the speed presently consumed by the industrialised world, oil consumption would grow from concerning thirty three billion barrels of oil per annum to concerning one,875 billion barrels of oil per annum. At this rate of consumption, Saudi's super big oil reservoir would be depleted in concerning one.7 months. To resolve this potential quandary we'll presumably solve our energy drawback by exploitation H made up of water as our transportable fuel, and stationary electrical power with fusion (not fission) nuclear. however what concerning alternative non-renewable materials?
As you'll be able to see, by the year 2190 the world's population can be eighteen billion -- nearly 3 times over exists these days. whereas most readers of this text won't be alive at that point, several of their kids, and grand kids can. Considering the actual fact that the amount of individuals presently coming into the industrialised economy annually is concerning two p.c, it isn't unreasonable to assume that non-renewable resources are going to be consumed at a way larger rate than they're these days. in reality -- let's do some easy arithmetic. presently -- of the seven billion folks living these days, solely concerning one.31 billion ar intense non-renewable materials at the speed being consumed by the us. exploitation Associate in Nursing stand out program, multiply 1.31 billion by one.02 to represent the rise in next year's industrialised shoppers. currently continue this method for seventy four additional years to represent the amount of industrialised shoppers within the year 2090. As you will see, the amount is five.56 billion instead of one.31 billion. This represents a consumption rate that's four.33 times what it's these days. If, for a few reason, all of the world's population at that point consumed non-renewable materials at this assumed industrialised rate it might be thirteen.85 times what it's these days.
What this suggests is that plastics, iron, aluminum, cobalt, titanium, nickel, etcetera would wish to be made abundant quicker, and if nothing is finished to anticipate this case, factory-made product costs can presumably skyrocket. this can be Associate in Nursing ominous scenario, and it's lurking within the not too distant future.
So what may be done? however concerning turning lemons into lemonade? initial of all let Maine create one issue clear. there's no shortage of most non-renewable materials on planet Earth -- a minimum of for the predictable future. the matter is finding them Associate in Nursingd extracting/delivering them economically at an progressively quicker rate. however here is wherever we tend to create our fruit drink. What did not create economic sense within the past, may create economic sense within the future. once the demand for non-renewable materials will increase exponentially we will offer jobs for poor and needy folks. however concerning mining low grade ore deposits and employment jobs? however concerning exploitation alternative energy to create and sell H fuel (as represented in previous articles on saving a village in India). however concerning exploitation mass produced/low price remote controlled zeppelins to make a world transportation network?
Regardless of whether or not or not the higher than mentioned concepts ar enforced, the actual fact that the center East can run out of oil within the next thirty to forty years creates a circumstance that no-one looks to be addressing. And, it may prove to be a blessing in disguise.
Stay tuned -- and i will make a case for additional concerning however our current condition might eventually cause my projected utopia. this could shock you.
My name is Don Bongaards and i am a retired engineer and author of 3 books.
If you would like to find out additional concerning the themes mentioned in my articles please click on my website:
http://www.darklifestory.blogspot.com
When you visit this web site you will find a free copy of a really fascinating and stunning chapter from my latest book entitled "The Future and on the far side."
No comments:
Post a Comment